After five weeks, the Seattle Seahawks have the best chance to win this year’s Super Bowl, according to the latest model by Nate Silver. But the defending Super Bowl champs are not alone and now the Dallas Cowboys have joined the party.
Using a rating system that accounts for margin of victory, home-field advantage, strength of schedule, and prior performance and then simulating the rest of the season thousands of times, Silver determined the probability each team has of making the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.
Here are the nine teams that still have a realistic chance (at least 5%) of winning this year’s Super Bowl:
- Seattle Seahawks, 17%
- San Diego Chargers, 12%
- Denver Broncos, 9%
- New England Patriots, 7%
- San Francisco 49ers, 6%
- Cincinnati Bengals, 6%
- Arizona Cardinals, 6%
- Dallas Cowboys, 5%
- Indianapolis Colts, 5%
The Cowboys and the Indianapolis Colts are the newest teams to the list, jumping up into the 5% range. The Carolina Panthers (3%) and the Philadelphia Eagles (4%) are two teams that have fallen below the 5% cutoff.
At the other end, there are already 14 teams given less than a 1% chance of winning the Super Bowl, including the Bills, Dolphins, Jets, Browns, Texans, Titans, Jags, Raiders, Redskins, Vikings, Bears, Falcons, Bucs, and Rams. The Jags, Raiders, and Redskins are all given less than 1% chance of even making the playoffs.
We have a long way to go, but right now, the most likely Super Bowl matchup is the Seahawks against the Chargers.
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