Interest chart from today’s IMF World Economic Outlook giving some big picture perspective of the current state of the global economy relative to where it was before the crisis.
Argentina is rocking relative to where it was before the crisis, but for how long?
We were also a bit surprised by Russia’s lack of recovery, which the IMF explains is due to the “lack capital flows—which fuelled credit, private demand, and growth before the crisis—have yet to return because investors remain wary of the political uncertainty in the
run-up to presidential elections.”
Here is the IMF’s lead into the chart. Note the comment about the U.S. “lack(s) a credible medium-term fiscal plan to reduce debt are draining confidence. We’ve always suspected Ms. Lagarde was half Ricardian.
The global economy has slowed, financial volatility and investor risk aversion have sharply increased, and performance has continued to diverge across regions (Figure 2.1). In the United States, weak growth and the lack of a credible medium-term fiscal plan to reduce debt are draining confidence. Europe is gripped with financial strains from the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area periphery. How these advanced economies confront their fiscal challenges will profoundly affect their economic prospects. Emerging and developing economies as a group continue to expand, a few at rates well above their precrisis averages. However, growth will likely moderate as the slowdown in major advanced economies weighs on external demand.
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