JP Morgan’s Tom Lee wowed us today by slapping a 2,075 target on the S&P 500 for 2014, which implies a 17% return from current levels.
This call makes Lee by far the most bullish widely-followed strategist on Wall Street.
So, what’s behind his call?
Among other things, he compares the pattern of returns in the current bull market with previous bulls. Here’s what he said:
It’s a classic bull market in its 6th year
The bull market, which began in March 2009, is acting like a “classic” secular bull market (see Figure 1). Furthermore, as shown on Figure 3, the end of each precedent secular bull market coincided with a recession (’87 saw the yield curve invert in ’86). Notably, as shown below, the 6th year of a bull market has historically been very strong, which would suggest that the market will continue to build upon the strong gains seen in 2013 as it enters its 6th year.
That was followed by this chart, which investors and traders everywhere are surely mulling over.
“History says we could see a 20% gain in 2014,” wrote Lee.
What do you think?