Australia’s central bank warned its currency is too strong — and now its falling off 9-month highs

Good morning!

The biggest moves in FX as of Monday, April 5 8:15 a.m are in the Australian dollar, the Indian rupee, and the Japanese yen.

Here’s the scoreboard:

  • The Australian dollar is falling off nine-month highs, down 1.0% at 0.7533 per dollar. Earlier, the Reserve Bank of Australia warned about a too strong Australian dollar, noting: “Under present circumstances, an appreciating exchange rate could complicate the adjustment under way in the economy.” This was a stark change from the previous month when the bank noted said: “The exchange rate has been adjusting to the evolving economic outlook.” Additionally, the bank held rates at 2.00%.
  • The Indian rupee is weaker by 0.5% at 66.466 per dollar after the Reserve Bank of India cut rates by 25 basis points to 6.50%, as expected. This was the fifth rate cute since the beginning of 2015, and dropped the bank’s main rate to its lowest level since 2011.
  • The dollar index is stronger by 0.3% ahead of a heavy day of economic data. We’ll see the trade balance, Markit composite PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, and JOLTs job openings. First up will be the trade balance, coming out at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • The Japanese yen is stronger by 0.6% after average cash earnings came in up 0.9% year-over-year following three months of stagnation. However, Capital Economics’ Marcel Thieliant noted that, “while wage growth rebounded in February, the ongoing spring wage negotiations will likely result in smaller base pay hikes than last year. The upshot is that the outlook for labour income remains bleak.”
  • The euro is weaker by 0.2% after European PMIs disappointed. The eurozone’s composite PMI came in at 53.1, down from its flash reading of 53.7. Services across the region missed estimates, except in Spain, where the reading came in at 55.3, above its flash reading of 54.1. Germany’s services sector fell to 55.1, the second-lowest since November, while France’s came in at 49.9, indicating a contraction.
  • The British pound is weaker by 0.5% after services PMI for March came in at 53.7, in line with expectations.

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