Here are the major moves in FX as of Monday, April 4 8:00 a.m.
- The US dollar index is up 0.2% at 94.77 ahead of factory orders, which will be out at 10 a.m. ET. Economists estimated orders fell 1.8% in February, following a 1.6% gain the month before. “With few US economic data releases it will be the dovish tone of the FOMC minutes and investors’ hunt for yield that should support further USD weakness,” argued a Morgan Stanley team led by Hans W. Redeker in a note to clients.
- The Japanese yen is little changed at 111.60 per dollar in a quiet session.
- The euro is weaker by 0.2% at 1.1366 after data showed unemployment in the eurozone slipped to its lowest level in almost five years. Unemployment came in at 10.3% in February, below January’s 10.4%. Germany had the lowest rate at 4.3%, while Greece had the highest at 24%. Additionally, Greece began migrant and refugee deportations as a part of the new EU plan to limit migration, and it’s back at the negotiating table with its creditors.
- The British pound is stronger by 0.3% at 1.4260 versus the dollar after the latest UK construction PMI reading came in at 54.2, above expectations of 54.0. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion. Additionally, the pro-Brexit side is gaining in popularity: the latest poll taken by Opinium for the Observer newspaper shows 43% of Brits support a British exit from the European Union. A referendum on the issue will take place June 23.
- The Turkish lira is edging higher versus the dollar, up 0.1% at 2.8186, following the latest consumer price index (CPI) reading which came in at -0.04% month-over-month, below expectations of 0.50%. “The sharp decline in Turkish inflation in March, to a seven-month low of 7.5% year-over-year, was driven by a drop in food inflation, and masked the fact that core inflation remains extremely strong,” wrote Capital Economics’ William Jackson. “Even so, today’s data make it more likely that the central bank will follow up its recent interest rate with another one this month.”
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