Currency Traders Are Making A Huge Bet The Fed Does Nothing Tonight

Getty/Streeter Lecka

The Federal Reserve meets tonight for the last time this year. It’s widely expected they will change their language on interest rates and signal the period of super low interest rates is coming to an end.

That’s the rather shattering change in policy that RBA Governor Stevens had been waiting for to finally kick the Aussie dollar into a lower range.

It’s one of the reasons why he’s now comfortable with calling 75 cents.

But overnight, and in Asia today, Forex traders appear to be betting the Fed won’t change its language, that the signal for higher rates will not come tonight, and that as a result the US dollar will weaken.

US Dollar/Yen traded down to 115.60 overnight before bouncing back to 117.30 this morning but it’s now back at 116.50. The Euro has also broken higher and is at 1.2520 this afternoon.

Chris Gore, managing director of Go Markets said there had been a steady stream of selling US dollars in Asia today.

“Just before such an important FOMC meeting clearly the market is betting Yellen and co at the Fed wont drop the ‘considerable period’ language,” he said.

It’s a big bet for Forex traders because the Fed Chair Yellen is nothing if not consistent in keeping markets informed.

Here are the charts. We’ll know in the morning, Australian time.


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