Robots warring thousands of miles away from their controller, obese citizens who has never left their country, and a reduction in international trade.
That’s one possible result of an end-of-globalization scenario.
Credit Suisse published a study in September asking what would cause globalization to end, and what would happen if it did?
Globalization has been a powerful force, impacting economies and societies around the world, according to the study.
“In recent years, the path that globalization is taking has become obstacle strewn and much less clear.”
The study highlighted a number of potential consequences of globalization coming to an end and going into reverse, ranging from reduced food imports and exports to increased civil strife.
Credit Suisse also notes that though an end-of-globalization scenario “can be both chilling and entertaining” — it seems that “at the moment we are far from that.”
Scroll down to read how it could all play out:
title=”Human interactions will change”
content=”‘We are still far from a truly globalized digital sphere. Cultural, linguistic and historical barriers strongly compartmentalise the internet. It is an unlikely scenario, but digital interactions might make actual contact with other parts of the world less important,’ the Credit Suisse note stated.”
title=”Less trade and cooperation between nations”
content=”3D printing technology could make it easier and cheaper to produce goods and services on home soil. That could mean less trade and less interaction between nations and their companies.
Countries might also choose to increase trade barriers through tariffs, according to the report. ‘We also note the relative increase in the imposition of non-tariff barriers, especially since the formation of the WTO in 1995, as an indirect barrier to trade is also a potential threat to globalization along with trade sanctions,’ the report said.”
content=”The growing automation sector could lead to robotics warfare, which will lower casualties and the risk to human life. It could also make war seem less costly than it is now, since robots are more replaceable than people.
In this dystopian scenario, countries would be much more willing to engage in battle than they are now — leading to more global political instability and the breakdown of international relations.”
source=”Suidobashi Heavy Industry”
title=”Internet security could tighten around the globe”
content=”Given the growing threat of cyber espionage, countries might try to insulate themselves by creating closed national networks like the one that exists in North Korea.
Developing countries like Iran and China are currently far more stringent about keeping control of the internet than more developed nations.”
title=”Energy exports and imports will also drop”
content=”‘Renewable energy sources such as solar, wind or hydro energy have the potential to decentralize energy production, lessening the need for energy imports in many countries. While it will still be economically reasonable to import energy from the cheapest producer (e.g. solar energy from North Africa to Europe); the desire to be more energy independent may lead many countries to reduce global interdependence,’ the note stated.”
title=”Cultural differences such as religion and language will become key”
content=”‘The world is increasingly undercut by fault lines in terms of religion, climate change, language, military development and indebtedness to name a few,’ the note stated, referencing the increase in global terrorism.”
source=”Association of Statisticians Of American Religious Bodies”
title=”Here is a summary of the risks”
content=”Trade and financial flows: Barriers to trade and protectionism increase
Markets: Fragmentation; rise in the cost of capital
Currency: Currency wars
Economic growth: Domestic focused: slower. Shocks from debt, inequality, climate and geopolitics
Corporations: National champions. Anti-MNCs (Multi-national corporations)
Global governance: Open conflicsts. Geopolitical military clashes. Climate events.
Forms of government: Reversals in transitions to democracy
People flows: Breakdown for migration. Social exclusion of migrant population.
Social and human development: Increased poverty and civil strife. Rise of anti-globalization socio-political movements.
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