Photo: Herve Boinay | Flickr
Credit Suisse just wrapped up a week of 1-on-1 discussions with its global macro clients and have compiled the investors’ responses to various macro concerns.They asked 17 questions. Three answers took them by surprise:
- “Surprisingly, 29% of investors thought European assets provide the best risk return trade-off over the next decade relative to current expectations, so investors can see opportunities.” (Note: this compares with 26% for the U.S., 6% for China, 10% for Japan, and 29% for other emerging markets)
- “Nearly 60% of investors think there will be a renewed recession in the US within the next 2 years (32% of investors thought there was going to be a renewed recession within the next year). We find this surprisingly bearish, given the robustness of the US growth indicators (housing, employment, loan growth, car sales).
- “One surprising result of our survey is that only 1% of investors see China as the most significant risk to growth, with 59% of investors believing that there was a zero or less than 25% chance of sub 7% GDP in China! Surely this is an area where investors are too sanguine.”
While this is largely anecdotal, the results nevertheless offer a useful glimpse into what the big money is doing.