CREDIT SUISSE: 13 Big Stories Will Move The Markets In 2013

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Credit Suisse joins Goldman Sachs and Bank Of America Merrill Lynch in offering a list of investment themes for 2013.”As we stand on the cusp of 2013, we offer 13 themes to help direct your investment decisions through the year,” write Credit Suisse’s U.S. equity research team in a massive 97-page report.

Here’s their summary:

  1. Margin Vulnerability: margins are more sustainable than you might think
  2. Big, Fast Data: learning from the best across software and e-commerce; assessing the potential impact on the retail sector
  3. Genomics & Genetics: how the science is impacting today’s decisions on medical care delivery
  4. Healthcare Reform: uncertainty to remain significant in ’13 as the sector focuses on implementation
  5. Financial Regulation: a forest of regulation will surround the sector in ’13
  6. US Housing: how to benefit from continued recovery in ’13
  7. The Return of Emerging Markets: how industrial companies will capitalise on strength and growth in emerging economies
  8. International Trade: we expect strength in internationally-exposed small and mid-cap stocks
  9. Diverging Growth Paths in IT Services: focus on companies with deep domain expertise and strong consulting relationships
  10. Energy Divergence: stock and sub-sector performance will be more divergent than in the upcycle
  11. Shale Revolution: the impact of the shale revolution on the highly interrelated global energy system
  12. Nat Gas Vehicles: the shift to NGVs is creating opportunities for engine technology providers and companies in the fuel supply chain
  13. Automation: industrial automation continues to outpace industrial production, creating a set of new opportunities

Andrew Garthwaite, Credit Suisse’s top equity strategist, expects the S&P 500 to end 2013 at 1,550.

“The current level of macro surprises is consistent with significant stronger markets,” wrote Garthwaite.  “We think global GDP growth will accelerate modestly from the current growth rate of slightly below 3% to around 3.2–3.4% in 2013. These GDP growth rates have historically been consistent with total returns of around 10%.”

“The main are of concern is earnings,” he warned.  “We now forecast 2.5% EPS growth in the US (compared to a consensus forecast of 9.4%).”