An unnerving tweet from Jim Cramer this morning*:
Combine that with:
- the Euro-collapse
- record high (and completely unsustainable) profit margins in the US
- record low interest rates (the gas pedal is already floored)
- the fiscal cliff
- Ballooning debts the world around, and
- Stock valuations that are much higher than average using a long-term “smoothed” PE ratio
Basically, lots of measures that generally, eventually, regress to means are far above or below those means. And the regression-to-mean won’t help the market.
And then there are the one-offs–Europe, Taxmageddon, unsustainable debts-and-deficits–that have to get resolved. And those resolutions probably won’t help the market, either.
So you’ve got yourself a lot to worry about.
Alternatively, you can just assume that it’s different this time.
* UPDATE: Jim says on Twitter that this tweet was backward-looking–i.e., a comment on what had just happened–not a forecast. So maybe we’re not screwed!
* UPDATE 2: Well, the jobs report was horrible. And the market’s tanking. So it looks like our misinterpretation of Jim’s tweet got it right!