UBS: These Are The Countries With The Worst National Balance Sheets

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With Greece on the brink of default, people are increasingly concerned about who could be next.  Italy? Portugal? The U.S.?We drew on UBS analyst Andrew Cates’ aggregate balance sheet risk index to provide a snapshot of the financial fragility of the countries most at risk.

The factors that help determine balance sheet risk include high cumulative credit outstanding, high banking sector leverage as measured by loan-deposit ratios, and substantial public sector debt as a percentage of GDP.

Note: All data is for 2010. The Balance Sheet Risk index depends on several indicators that include credit to GDP ratio, loan to deposit ratio, public sector debt as a per cent of GDP, and indicators of external fragility like current account balance to GDP ratio and external debt to GDP ratio among others.

#19 U.S.

Credit to GDP ratio: 5.1%

Loan deposit ratio: 147%

Public sector debt as a per cent of GDP: 92.7%

Total score: 4.8

Source: UBS

#18 Poland

Credit to GDP ratio: 24.6%

Loan deposit ratio: 106.3%

Public sector debt as a per cent of GDP: 54.2%

Total score: 4.8

Source: UBS

#17 Romania

Credit to GDP ratio: 21.2%

Loan deposit ratio: 113.3%

Public sector debt as a per cent of GDP: 35.3%

Total score: 5.1

Source: UBS

#16 Norway

Credit to GDP ratio: 24.8%

Loan deposit ratio: 214.9%

Public sector debt as a per cent of GDP: 54.3%

Total score: 5.1

Source: UBS

#15 Canada

Credit to GDP ratio: 23.4%

Loan deposit ratio: 199.3%

Public sector debt as a per cent of GDP: 81.7%

Total score: 5.1

Source: UBS

#14 Italy

Credit to GDP ratio: 25.3%

Loan deposit ratio: 165.2%

Public sector debt as a per cent of GDP: 118.4%

Total score: 5.2

Source: UBS

#13 Finland

Credit to GDP ratio: 19.9%

Loan deposit ratio: 156.4%

Public sector debt as a per cent of GDP: 50%

Total score: 5.3

Source: UBS

#12 Bulgaria

Credit to GDP ratio: 36%

Loan deposit ratio: 102.6%

Public sector debt as a per cent of GDP: 16.6%

Total score: 5.3

Source: UBS

#11 Netherlands

Credit to GDP ratio: 15.7%

Loan deposit ratio: 158.7%

Public sector debt as a per cent of GDP: 66%

Total score: 5.4

Source: UBS

#10 Sweden

Credit to GDP ratio: 27.3%

Loan deposit ratio: 237.6%

Public sector debt as a per cent of GDP: 41.7%

Total score:

Source: UBS

#9 Belgium

Credit to GDP ratio: 22%

Loan deposit ratio: 98.1%

Public sector debt as a per cent of GDP: 100.2%

Total score: 5.5

Source: UBS

#8 France

Credit to GDP ratio: 19.4%

Loan deposit ratio: 163.6%

Public sector debt as a per cent of GDP: 84.2%

Total score: 5.5

Source: UBS

#7 Denmark

Credit to GDP ratio: 44.1%

Loan deposit ratio: 346.1%

Public sector debt as a per cent of GDP: 44.2%

Total score: 5.6

Source: UBS

#6 Hungary

Credit to GDP ratio: 21%

Loan deposit ratio: 123.6%

Public sector debt as a per cent of GDP: 85.3%

Total score: 5.8

Source: UBS

#5 UK

Credit to GDP ratio: 35.2%

Loan deposit ratio: 150.5%

Public sector debt as a per cent of GDP: 76.7%

Total score: 6

Source: UBS

#4 Greece

Credit to GDP ratio: 55.7%

Loan deposit ratio: 117.7%

Public sector debt as a per cent of GDP: 130.2%

Total score: 6.1

Source: UBS

#3 Spain

Credit to GDP ratio: 66%

Loan deposit ratio: 223%

Public sector debt as a per cent of GDP: 63.5%

Total score: 6.3

Source: UBS

#2 Portugal

Credit to GDP ratio: 53.6%

Loan deposit ratio: 189.2%

Public sector debt as a per cent of GDP: 83.1%

Total score: 7

Source: UBS

#1 Ireland

Credit to GDP ratio: 56.1%

Loan deposit ratio: 187.3%

Public sector debt as a per cent of GDP: 99.4%

Total score: 7.6

Source: UBS

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