Brazil is still the overwhelming favourite to win the World Cup but the gap between them and the field is narrowing according to the latest model by Nate Silver.
In addition, the elimination of Spain and the near-elimination of England has opened the door for more countries and there are now seven countries with at least a 5% chance of winning the World Cup.
Here are the chances of winning the World Cup after the first week:
- Brazil, 36%
- Argentina, 15%
- Germany, 15%
- Chile, 7%
- Netherlands, 6%
- Colombia, 5%
- France, 5%
No other country has more than a 2% chance of winning the tournament and 21 of the 32 teams have either been eliminated or have less than 1% chance of winning. This includes the United States (<1%).
Prior to the start of the tournament, Silver’s model gave Brazil a 45% chance of winning and only three other countries had more than a 4% chance of winning, including Spain at 8%, who has already been eliminated.
Netherlands has had the biggest jump in their chances to win, going from 1% prior to the tournament to 6% now. Germany has improved from 11% to 15%.
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