The 21 Countries Most Likely To Default

Roller Coaster

[credit provider=”Wikimedia Commons” url=”http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Dodonpa_Roller_Coaster_in_2009.jpg”]

Friday’s S&P outlook downgrade of Italian sovereign debt has sent credit markets into a tailspin this morning, and made a difficult situation in Europe look even worse.Recent elections and failed austerity measures have also exacerbated the crisis, with many of Europe’s fringe states lacking the growth they need to escape their debt traps.

Now, the costs of insuring sovereign debt of eurozone states is rising again, as markets begin to be believe in the inevitability of some sort of restructuring event.

We’ve ranked the top 21 countries by today’s intraday CDS price, or the cost to insure each country’s debt. It isn’t a perfect ranking of what country is likely to default first, or when, but does show a growing consensus from market participants that the crises in these states is getting worse.

[slideshow]
[slide
permalink=”21-russia-1″
title=”#21 Russia”
content=”Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 136.83

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 135.37

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)
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[slide
permalink=”20-poland-2″
title=”#20 Poland”
content=”Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 140.32

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 140.20

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)

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[slide
permalink=”19-israel-3″
title=”#19 Israel”
content=”Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 147.98

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 143.16

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)
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[slide
permalink=”18-kazakhstan-4″
title=”#18 Kazakhstan”
content=”Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 151.52

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 143.00

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)
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[slide
permalink=”17-belgium-5″
title=”#17 Belgium”
content=”Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 156.88

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 147.28

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)
image=”http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4bded82e7f8b9a0075440100/image.jpg”
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[slide
permalink=”16-turkey-6″
title=”#16 Turkey”
content=”Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 164.21

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 160.49

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)
image=”http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4da5a0b0ccd1d51722040000/image.jpg”
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[slide
permalink=”15-italy-7″
title=”#15 Italy”
content=”Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 167.88

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 159.63

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)
image=”http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4c472dfb7f8b9a5157f60100/image.jpg”
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[slide
permalink=”14-lithuania-8″
title=”#14 Lithuania”
content=”Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 201.50

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 195.82

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)
image=”http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4b740fb50000000000da1642/image.jpg”
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[slide
permalink=”13-bulgaria-9″
title=”#13 Bulgaria”
content=”Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 203.50

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 203.04

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)
image=”http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4b740e9a00000000002c0393/image.jpg”
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[slide
permalink=”12-romania-10″
title=”#12 Romania”
content=”Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 230.17

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 228.87

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)
image=”http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4beac7577f8b9a293f040300/image.jpg”
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[slide
permalink=”11-hungary-11″
title=”#11 Hungary”
content=”Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 260.00

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 256.63

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)
image=”http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4b6afa0f0000000000acb588/image.jpg”
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[slide
permalink=”10-croatia-12″
title=”#10 Croatia”
content=”Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 264.83

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 257.52

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)
image=”http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4dc448924bd7c8d67c020000/image.jpg”
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[slide
permalink=”9-spain-13″
title=”#9 Spain”
content=”Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 275.67

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 261.69

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)
image=”http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4dd411c04bd7c82b492a0000/image.jpg”
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[slide
permalink=”8-vietnam-14″
title=”#8 Vietnam”
content=”Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 305.45

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 300.61

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)
image=”http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4dbb109849e2aed3360f0000/image.jpg”
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[slide
permalink=”7-lebanon-15″
title=”#7 Lebanon”
content=”Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 359.35

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 355.00

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)
image=”http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4afd6e190000000000a98ac3/image.jpg”
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[slide
permalink=”6-ukraine-16″
title=”#6 Ukraine”
content=”Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 450.02

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 443.00

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)
image=”http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4b7410250000000000722dbf/image.jpg”
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[slide
permalink=”5-argentina-17″
title=”#5 Argentina”
content=”Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 612.77

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 605.52

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)
image=”http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4d839486cadcbb01604f0000/image.jpg”
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[slide
permalink=”4-ireland-18″
title=”#4 Ireland”
content=”Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 662.83

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 639.82

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)
image=”http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4cb5d69a7f8b9aaa76580400/image.jpg”
caption=””
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[slide
permalink=”3-portugal-19″
title=”#3 Portugal”
content=”Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 663.67

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 639.47

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)
image=”http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4d8a4617cadcbba83c150000/image.jpg”
caption=””
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[slide
permalink=”2-venezuela-20″
title=”#2 Venezuela”
content=”Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 1026.92

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 1052.31

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)
image=”http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4c17d0037f8b9ad703e20100/image.jpg”
caption=””
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[slide
permalink=”1-greece-21″
title=”#1 Greece”
content=”Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 1393.33

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 1334.83

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)

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[slide
permalink=”now-how-might-a-default-play-out-22″
title=”Now how might a default play out?”
content=”Read Niall Ferguson’s guide to the sovereign debt crisis >
image=”http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4d6ff63bcadcbbde42030000/image.jpg”
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[/slideshow]