The 21 Countries Most Likely To Default

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Friday’s S&P outlook downgrade of Italian sovereign debt has sent credit markets into a tailspin this morning, and made a difficult situation in Europe look even worse.Recent elections and failed austerity measures have also exacerbated the crisis, with many of Europe’s fringe states lacking the growth they need to escape their debt traps.

Now, the costs of insuring sovereign debt of eurozone states is rising again, as markets begin to be believe in the inevitability of some sort of restructuring event.

We’ve ranked the top 21 countries by today’s intraday CDS price, or the cost to insure each country’s debt. It isn’t a perfect ranking of what country is likely to default first, or when, but does show a growing consensus from market participants that the crises in these states is getting worse.

#21 Russia

Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 136.83

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 135.37

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)

#20 Poland

Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 140.32

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 140.20

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)

#19 Israel

Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 147.98

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 143.16

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)

#18 Kazakhstan

Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 151.52

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 143.00

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)

#17 Belgium

Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 156.88

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 147.28

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)

#16 Turkey

Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 164.21

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 160.49

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)

#15 Italy

Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 167.88

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 159.63

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)

#14 Lithuania

Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 201.50

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 195.82

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)

#13 Bulgaria

Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 203.50

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 203.04

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)

#12 Romania

Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 230.17

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 228.87

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)

#11 Hungary

Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 260.00

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 256.63

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)

#10 Croatia

Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 264.83

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 257.52

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)

#9 Spain

Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 275.67

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 261.69

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)

#8 Vietnam

Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 305.45

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 300.61

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)

#7 Lebanon

Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 359.35

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 355.00

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)

#6 Ukraine

Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 450.02

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 443.00

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)

#5 Argentina

Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 612.77

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 605.52

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)

#4 Ireland

Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 662.83

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 639.82

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)

#3 Portugal

Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 663.67

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 639.47

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)

#2 Venezuela

Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 1026.92

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 1052.31

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)

#1 Greece

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 1393.33

Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 1334.83

Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.

Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)

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