The 19 Countries Most Likely To Default

greece

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The last three months have seen the crisis in the eurozone escalate and the result is rising costs fo insuring the region’s debts.Now, country’s like Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain, once considered safe sovereigns, are more likely to default than Iraq, according to CMA Datavision’s latest report.

The surprising surge puts the eurozone crisis into context. While the presumption is that the monetary union remains one of the world’s most stable markets, investors now view it as one of the most dangerous debt markets in the world.

CMA‘s list is ranked by CPD, or cumulative probability of default. This rating is separate from a company’s CDS, but is closely related, and based on the volatility and price of that product.

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[slide
permalink=”19-lithuania-1″
title=”#19 Lithuania”
content=”Cumulative Probability of Default: 16.4%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 251.2

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): bb+

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): bb+

Source: CMA Datavision
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[slide
permalink=”18-croatia-2″
title=”#18 Croatia”
content=”Cumulative Probability of Default: 16.8%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 256.0

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): bb+

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): bb+

Source: CMA Datavision
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[slide
permalink=”17-latvia-3″
title=”#17 Latvia”
content=”Cumulative Probability of Default: 17.3%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 266.1

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): bb+

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): bb-

Source: CMA Datavision
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[slide
permalink=”16-belgium-4″
title=”#16 Belgium”
content=”Cumulative Probability of Default: 17.9%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 219.8

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): bb

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): aa-

Source: CMA Datavision
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[slide
permalink=”15-romania-5″
title=”#15 Romania”
content=”Cumulative Probability of Default: 18.7%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 290.2

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): bb

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): bb-

Source: CMA Datavision
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[slide
permalink=”14-lebanon-6″
title=”#14 Lebanon”
content=”Cumulative Probability of Default: 19.2%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 298.1

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): bb

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): bb

Source: CMA Datavision
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[slide
permalink=”13-iceland-7″
title=”#13 Iceland”
content=”Cumulative Probability of Default: 19.2%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 265.0

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): bb

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): bb-

Source: CMA Datavision
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[slide
permalink=”12-italy-8″
title=”#12 Italy”
content=”Cumulative Probability of Default: 19.3%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 238.0

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): bb

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): bb+

Source: CMA Datavision
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[slide
permalink=”11-vietnam-9″
title=”#11 Vietnam”
content=”Cumulative Probability of Default: 19.4%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 299.6

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): bb

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): bb+

Source: CMA Datavision
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[slide
permalink=”10-iraq-10″
title=”#10 Iraq”
content=”Cumulative Probability of Default: 23.1%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 366.1

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): bb-

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): b+

Source: CMA Datavision
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[slide
permalink=”9-hungary-11″
title=”#9 Hungary”
content=”Cumulative Probability of Default: 23.6%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 378.0

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): bb-

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): bb

Source: CMA Datavision
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[slide
permalink=”8-dubai-12″
title=”#8 Dubai”
content=”Cumulative Probability of Default: 25.5%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 417.6

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): bb-

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): b+

Source: CMA Datavision
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[slide
permalink=”7-spain-13″
title=”#7 Spain”
content=”Cumulative Probability of Default: 27.7%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 347.7

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): bb-

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): bb

Source: CMA Datavision
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[slide
permalink=”6-ukraine-14″
title=”#6 Ukraine”
content=”Cumulative Probability of Default: 30.6%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 509.5

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): b+

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): b

Source: CMA Datavision
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[slide
permalink=”5-argentina-15″
title=”#5 Argentina”
content=”Cumulative Probability of Default: 35.4%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 602.4

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): b

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): b-

Source: CMA Datavision
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[slide
permalink=”4-portugal-16″
title=”#4 Portugal”
content=”Cumulative Probability of Default: 35.9%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 497.3

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): b

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): b+

Source: CMA Datavision
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[slide
permalink=”3-ireland-17″
title=”#3 Ireland”
content=”Cumulative Probability of Default: 41.2%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 619.2

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): b

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): b

Source: CMA Datavision
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[slide
permalink=”2-venezuela-18″
title=”#2 Venezuela”
content=”Cumulative Probability of Default: 51.4%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 1009.6

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): ccc+

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): ccc

Source: CMA Datavision
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[slide
permalink=”1-greece-19″
title=”#1 Greece”
content=”Cumulative Probability of Default: 58.8%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 1026.5

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): ccc-

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): ccc+

Source: CMA Datavision
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[slide
permalink=”so-what-does-sovereign-default-look-like-20″
title=”So what does sovereign default look like?”
content=”Check out Niall Ferguson’s complete guide to sovereign debt >

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[/slideshow]