The 19 Countries Most Likely To Default

greece

Photo: ap

The last three months have seen the crisis in the eurozone escalate and the result is rising costs fo insuring the region’s debts.Now, country’s like Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain, once considered safe sovereigns, are more likely to default than Iraq, according to CMA Datavision’s latest report.

The surprising surge puts the eurozone crisis into context. While the presumption is that the monetary union remains one of the world’s most stable markets, investors now view it as one of the most dangerous debt markets in the world.

CMA‘s list is ranked by CPD, or cumulative probability of default. This rating is separate from a company’s CDS, but is closely related, and based on the volatility and price of that product.

#19 Lithuania

Cumulative Probability of Default: 16.4%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 251.2

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): bb+

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): bb+

Source: CMA Datavision

#18 Croatia

Cumulative Probability of Default: 16.8%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 256.0

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): bb+

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): bb+

Source: CMA Datavision

#17 Latvia

Cumulative Probability of Default: 17.3%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 266.1

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): bb+

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): bb-

Source: CMA Datavision

#16 Belgium

Cumulative Probability of Default: 17.9%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 219.8

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): bb

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): aa-

Source: CMA Datavision

#15 Romania

Cumulative Probability of Default: 18.7%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 290.2

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): bb

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): bb-

Source: CMA Datavision

#14 Lebanon

Cumulative Probability of Default: 19.2%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 298.1

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): bb

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): bb

Source: CMA Datavision

#13 Iceland

Cumulative Probability of Default: 19.2%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 265.0

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): bb

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): bb-

Source: CMA Datavision

#12 Italy

Cumulative Probability of Default: 19.3%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 238.0

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): bb

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): bb+

Source: CMA Datavision

#11 Vietnam

Cumulative Probability of Default: 19.4%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 299.6

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): bb

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): bb+

Source: CMA Datavision

#10 Iraq

Cumulative Probability of Default: 23.1%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 366.1

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): bb-

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): b+

Source: CMA Datavision

#9 Hungary

Cumulative Probability of Default: 23.6%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 378.0

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): bb-

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): bb

Source: CMA Datavision

#8 Dubai

Cumulative Probability of Default: 25.5%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 417.6

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): bb-

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): b+

Source: CMA Datavision

#7 Spain

Cumulative Probability of Default: 27.7%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 347.7

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): bb-

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): bb

Source: CMA Datavision

#6 Ukraine

Cumulative Probability of Default: 30.6%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 509.5

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): b+

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): b

Source: CMA Datavision

#5 Argentina

Cumulative Probability of Default: 35.4%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 602.4

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): b

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): b-

Source: CMA Datavision

#4 Portugal

Cumulative Probability of Default: 35.9%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 497.3

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): b

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): b+

Source: CMA Datavision

#3 Ireland

Cumulative Probability of Default: 41.2%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 619.2

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): b

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): b

Source: CMA Datavision

#2 Venezuela

Cumulative Probability of Default: 51.4%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 1009.6

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): ccc+

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): ccc

Source: CMA Datavision

#1 Greece

Cumulative Probability of Default: 58.8%

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 1026.5

CMA Implied Rating (Dec 31): ccc-

CMA Implied Rating (Q3): ccc+

Source: CMA Datavision

So what does sovereign default look like?

Business Insider Emails & Alerts

Site highlights each day to your inbox.

Follow Business Insider Australia on Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, and Instagram.