Corn prices immediately collapsed last night as soon as trading opened, following a bearish USDA report Thursday saying stocks were higher than anticipated.
This morning, the freefall is continuing.
May prices were down as much as 5.58 per cent. Here’s the chart:
Morgan Stanley commodities guru Adam Longson says the decline could and should have been even worse if not for CME circuit breakers.
However, he puts forward a reason why bulls shouldn’t flee: export demand.
Export parity should still cushion falling old-crop corn prices. While we would not be surprised to see old-crop corn prices sell off further, the US balance will remain tight until the new harvest — with Thursday’s miss masking the fact that Mar 1 stocks were still down 10% YoY. A pullback in US prices below $6.40/bu would leave US exports competitive again against Argentina, resulting in an unsustainable up-tick in US demand.
We’d also note that a recent NOAA report says weather should be returning to normal in large swaths of corn country after last year’s devastating drought.
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