The fewer bets an NFL team gets, the more often they cover the spread, according to Sportsinsights.com.
While that might not qualify as breaking news to experienced gamblers, it’s a good rule to keep in mind the next time you put money on a “can’t-miss” bet.
Underdogs that garnered 20 per cent or less of the betting action on their game, paid off 56 per cent of the time since 2003.
That might not seem too high, but it’s a significant upgrade over the 47.7 cover percentage that underdogs with 60 per cent of all bets enjoy. Sports books never lose money, so going against the popular current is a winning strategy.
This week, watch out for San Diego-Cincinnati, Baltimore-Cleveland, New England-Buffalo, Tampa Bay-Seattle, Philadelphia-Minnesota, and Dallas-Arizona. In each of those games the favourite (listed first) has at least 80 per cent of the bets recorded by Sportsinsights.com. Are you willing to put money where the public won’t?
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