ANZ and Roy Morgan have just released the latest update for their weekly consumer confidence data which shows that confidence remains strong around the long-run average.
The index showed that in the week ending Sunday, September 7, confidence rose 0.6% to 113.3 driven largely by consumers’ outlook toward their financial situation, according to the ANZ’s economics team.
Importantly, the subindex most closely correlated with consumer demand, household perceptions about their ‘financial situation compared to a year ago’, is showing continued momentum. After falling sharply in May and June, the subindex rebounded in July and August and continues to improve into September (up +2.9% last week). This is a positive sign for household spending in Q3.
Chief economist Warren Hogan reiterated his view that consumption will pick up into the end of the year, saying in a note accompanying the release that:
“The recent stabilisation in confidence is a positive sign and ANZ’s base case remains that consumer spending will grow moderately this year, before improving next year. The labour market will be important for the outlook, so it is encouraging that the August ANZ job ads report yesterday showed that labour demand is gradually strengthening.”
Not a boom but good economic news nonetheless.