A daisy chain of political disaster seems to be forming for President Obama, says political analyst Dan Clifton at Strategas Research. Clifton suggests that “there seems to be a relationship between consumer confidence and whether a president gets reelected. The current levels of confidence are consistent with Carter and George H. W. Bush when they lost reelection.”
That conclusion is displayed in the above chart.
And Clifton’s reasoning is based on the following three charts:
1. Small firms are becoming increasingly more concerned about taxes and regulation and less about sales in recent months. And these are the firms that create the bulk of net new jobs in America.
2. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has been sharply increasing in recent months, and that has been leading consumer sentiment.
3.The relationship between economic policy uncertainty and consumer confidence has held over time.
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