- ICM online poll: Conservatives 40 / Labour 28
- The Tories’ lead has been cut by 3% but the winning margin is still huge
ICM has published its latest UK voter intention survey and it confirms what has been apparent across opinion polls for the last few weeks — the Tories are really, really comfortable right now.
The poll puts Theresa May’s Conservatives on 40% — a massive 12-points ahead of Labour, which continues to languish below 30% as the soap opera at the heart of the party shows no signs of ending anytime soon.
This is what the ICM poll means for Business Insider’s voting intention poll tracker. The area to the right of the shaded line illustrates how Corbyn’s Labour has plummeted in the polls since early to mid-July.
This poll is the latest in a string of surveys which has indicated an unprecedented gulf between the Tory government and the Labour opposition. Last week, a TNS poll gave Labour its lowest rating as an opposition party since 1982. In a choice between Theresa May, Jeremy Corbyn, and neither, more respondents went for ‘neither’ than Corbyn when asked who they would prefer as prime minister.
Here is the outcome of Tuesday’s ICM poll in full:
- Conservative: 40% (-3)
- Labour: 28% (+1)
- UKIP: 14% (+1)
- Liberal Democrat: 8% (=)
- SNP 4% (=)
- Green 4% (=)
- Plaid Cymru 1% (=)
- Other 1% (+1)
As Business Insider has pointed out on numerous occasions, the opposition party really ought to be doing better at this stage in the electoral cycle. History tells us that the electorate typically grows sick of the government by this point, and opposition parties almost always lead in the polls. For example, on August 16 2011, exactly the same stage in the previous electoral cycle, Ed Miliband’s Labour party was 6-points ahead of the Tories in a YouGov poll.
Optimistic Corbyn supporters may try to present the fact that the Tory lead has been cut by three points since ICM’s last survey as a positive. In reality, the current Labour Party is underperforming even by its very worst historical standards.
As this tweet by The Independent’s John Rentoul shows, Corbyn is currently performing even worse than former leader Michael Foot did in the polls. Foot’s Labour went on to get absolutely crushed by Margaret Thatcher in the 1983 general election — guiding Labour to its lowest vote share since 1918.
It is really desperate times for Labour. As for Theresa May, she couldn’t have asked for a more feeble opposition.
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