Without a doubt, the biggest beneficiary of the conflict which is engulfing the Labour Party is the Conservative government.
The Tories have been enjoying staggering leads of up to 12-points over the opposition in recent opinion polls in what has been a honeymoon start for new Prime Minister Theresa May.
The chart below, produced by Matt Singh of Number Cruncher Politics, lets you visualise just how stunning the gulf between the Tories and Labour really is.
The Tories have enjoyed an average net change of +4 points in opinion polls since May took over from David Cameron last month. On average, governments have plummeted to net ratings of -8 points at this stage in the electoral cycle (1975-2010). This means that the Conservatives are 12 points better off than the historical average.
This statistic is unprecedented. As the chart shows, governments are expected to be pretty unpopular with the general public at this stage in the electoral cycle — and the opposition, at a minimum, should be leading polls. Even Ed Miliband’s Labour, which went on to lose the 2015 election, was enjoying leads of up to 6-points at this point.
This chart, like lots of data which has been published recently, will only strengthen the “Save Labour” narrative that Jeremy Corbyn is unelectable and is leading Labour into the political wilderness. His challenger Owen Smith has promised to re-transform the party into a “credible” electoral force.
However, these figures don’t seem to be damaging Corbyn’s chances of winning the upcoming Labour leadership election. Around 65% of new members who have joined to partake in the contest support the under-pressure leader, according to an early sample Business Insider reported on Tuesday.
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