Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone sales continue to impress. But what’s going to happen two years from now?
Wall Street is starting to roll out fiscal 2011 projections, and two early estimates are aggressive — around 50 million units, up from about 20 million iPhones that most analysts expect Apple to sell this year:
- Bernstein analyst A.M. (Toni) Sacconaghi, Jr. expects 52.4 million iPhones to be sold in fiscal 2011.
- RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky forecasts 49.3 million iPhones sold in fiscal 2011, with a “bull case” of a possible 55.9 million units. In comparison Abramsky believes RIM will sell 65.5 million smartphones and Palm 10.6 million during the same period (Bernstein does not cover RIMM or PALM).
How do they get there?
- More people buying smartphones. Abramsky believes smart phones will account for 29% of all global handests sold in 2011, while Sacconaghi, Jr. forecasts a 23% share. This is up from about 10% in 2008.
- Increased carrier partners. Both analysts believe Apple will continue to increase its carrier partners in countries where iPhones are currently being sold by getting rid of its exclusivity agreements. The largest of these markets are the U.S., where AT&T has an exclusive, and the U.K, where O2 has the exclusive. Sacconaghi believes shifting to non-exclusivity could add an additional 19.3 million units sold in 2011 alone.
- Additional countries. Sure, expanding into more countries will surely increase sales, but the big fish appears to be China (with almost 600 million mobile users). Apple plans to be in China within a year.
NOW WATCH: Tech Insider videos
Business Insider Emails & Alerts
Site highlights each day to your inbox.