There’s less than three weeks until Londoners elect their next mayor and the latest poll released by ComRes says Labour candidate Sadiq Khan remains on course to replace the outgoing Boris Johnson on May 5.
Tooting MP Khan enjoyed significant leads of eight and ten points in polls published by ComRes and Opinium earlier this month, and according to ComRes’ latest survey remains in the lead with a six to ten point lead. This will be alarming for Tory Goldsmith, who is failing to make any notable ground on his rival with election day fast approaching.
Here’s the results from the ComRes poll that was emailed to Business Insider.
More people intend to vote for Khan than Goldsmith in both the first and run-off rounds — Khan is leading 44-37% in the first round vote, and 55-45% in the run-off. Interestingly, ComRes’ research suggests Goldsmith’s struggle to improve his ratings has little to with his personality, though. In fact, his and Khan’s personal ratings are nearly identical, even in characteristics he has been using to describe Khan, like “extreme” and “radical.”
Goldsmith is looking unlikely to become the next mayor of London because he is falling short in
key demographic battlegrounds. In the last parliament, his party solidified its status as the logical choice for older people thanks to policies like the “triple lock pension” — the annual rise of the state pension — but as a result has lost the support of many young people. This trend is really damaging for Goldsmith, as seemingly it has affected the London population, which is much younger than the nation as a whole.
The MP for Richmond Park hasn’t been able to win over the black, Asian, and minority ethnic (BAME) vote either, and this is a problem given that this social group is on the rise in the capital. According to ComRes, Sadiq leads by a whopping 36 points among these voters, this despite Goldsmith campaign’s decision to target ethnic minority households with leaflets.
In a debate hosted by City AM last week, Khan and Goldsmith clashed over the issue of race, amid allegations by the latter that Khan had given “platforms, oxygen and even cover” to religious extremists. Khan said he was disappointed with the “tone” of his opponent’s campaign, but distanced himself from fellow Labour MP Yvette Cooper’s claim that Goldsmith’s campaign had become a “racist stream.”
Because he’s more popular among young Londoners and people from BAME backgrounds, Khan has monopolised two crucial social groups, leaving Goldsmith with all the work to do if he is going to defy the polls and become the capital’s next mayor. Also worrying for Goldsmith is how things are shaping up in outer London, where as things stand, he and Khan are neck and neck (42-41%) despite the fact that fellow Tory Boris Johnson comfortably won this region in the 2012 election.
It’s not all bad news for Goldsmith. More Londoners believe he would be more effective at working with the national government (49%) compared to those who say this of Khan (20%). Yet, it’s clear that the Conservative candidate has a lot of ground to make up and not a lot of time to do so.