12 Companies That Will Crush Their Earnings Estimates This Quarter

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Earnings season started last week, but it really gets cranking today.In a report put out last week, Citigroup analysts lead by Keith L Miller explain which stocks are most likely to beat earnings estimates.

They do this by looking at every stock in the First Call universe (stocks with analysts who are making predictions), and look at which companies have historically surpassed expectations. Then, using this data and a “secret sauce” model that combines growth, equity momentum, and other factors, they take a stab at who will “beat” this time.

Click here to see the companies >

Each company is given a score called its “Standardized Unexpected Earnings” (SUE) which takes Citi’s expected earnings minus the consensus earnings, all divided by the standard deviation of the estimates, which helps normalize the number, and which helps adjust for companies with wide variations in guesses. The bigger SUE the better.

Microsoft

Earnings date: January 27

Official per share estimate: $.68

Standardized Unexpected Earnings: 3.12

Source: Citi, Earnings Surprise Forecast Model Update, January 12

Apple

Earnings date: January 18 (Today)

Official estimate: $5.31

Standardized Unexpected Earnings: 3.03

Note: Apple ALWAYS crushes estimates It's actually something of a joke.

Source: Citi, Earnings Surprise Forecast Model Update, January 12

Yahoo

Earnings date: January 25

Official per share estimate: .22

Standardized Unexpected Earnings: 3.07

Source: Citi, Earnings Surprise Forecast Model Update, January 12

F5 Networks

Earnings date: January 19

Official per share estimate: $0.83

Standardized Unexpected Earnings:

Source: Citi, Earnings Surprise Forecast Model Update, January 12

Pfizer

Earnings date: February 1

Official per share estimate: $0.466

Standardized Unexpected Earnings: 3.22

Source: Citi, Earnings Surprise Forecast Model Update, January 12

Dell

Earnings date: February 15

Official per share estimate: $0.36

Standardized Unexpected Earnings: 3.67

Source: Citi, Earnings Surprise Forecast Model Update, January 12

Toll

Earnings date: February 21

Official estimate: -$0.07

Standardized Unexpected Earnings: 2.95

Source: Citi, Earnings Surprise Forecast Model Update, January 12

OpenTable

Earnings date: February 7

Official per share estimate: $0.21

Standardized Unexpected Earnings: 3.04

Source: Citi, Earnings Surprise Forecast Model Update, January 12

PCLN

Earnings date: February 13

Official per share estimate: $3.09

Standardized Unexpected Earnings: 3.15

Source: Citi, Earnings Surprise Forecast Model Update, January 12

QCOM

Earnings date: January 26

Official per share estimate: $0.72

Standardized Unexpected Earnings: 3.40

Source: Citi, Earnings Surprise Forecast Model Update, January 12

Aetna

Earnings date: February 4

Official estimate: $0.61

Standardized Unexpected Earnings: 3.43

Source: Citi, Earnings Surprise Forecast Model Update, January 12

United Health

Earnings date: January 20

Official estimate: $0.83

Standardized Unexpected Earnings: 3.68

Source: Citi, Earnings Surprise Forecast Model Update, January 12

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