The commodities set to boom or bust in the years ahead, in one chart

Coal trucks at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine. Photo: Ian Waldie/Getty Images
  • Macquarie Bank has updated its list of where individual commodities sit in their price cycle.
  • It likes the look of nickel, copper and platinum over the next few years.
  • Cobalt, lithium, manganese ore and thermal coal are expected to struggle over the next year.

If you’re looking for ideas as to what commodity prices may do over the next two years, the chart below may be of interest.

From Macquarie Bank, it shows where individual commodities currently sit in their price cycle — at least in Macquarie’s opinion — providing a rough guide as to what commodities are likely to be hot, or not, over the next two years.

Macquarie Bank

(The arrows indicate where Macquarie sees prices moving over the next two years based on supply and demand dynamics.)

So which commodities does Macquarie predict will outperform in the coming years?

Over a one-year time horizon, it likes the look of nickel, uranium, palladium and platinum, while over two years it says nickel, copper and platinum will do better than most.

At the other end of the spectrum, Macquarie’s least-preferred list over the next 12 months includes cobalt, lithium, manganese ore and thermal coal based largely on supply factors rather than demand.

Longer-term, its favoured commodities on a five-year horizon include uranium, nickel and copper. It’s least-favoured list over this period includes coal, steel and lithium.

As for what price levels Macquarie expects, its forecasts are below.

Macquarie Bank

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