Commodities Technical And Fundamental Analysis For July 18, 2011

Oil Technical Analysis for July 18, 2011

Light Sweet Crude

The CL contract had a slightly bullish day on Friday, but remains over the $95 mark. This area should produce support for the market, and could be a launching point for further bullishness. The trend is still up, and as such – we like buying when it dips. However, you should be aware that the $100 level is going to be tough to break through for the short-term.


Brent had a quiet day on Friday , but it should be noted that it is currently sitting just under a resistance area. The fact that the $120 hasn’t really managed to push prices lower makes one think that there is probably a lot of buying pressure underneath it. The play in our minds is to buy on closes above $120, or on dips.

Oil Fundamental Analysis for July 18, 2011

Crude oil pricesrose on Friday, where traders were worried over the outlook for U.S. debt, as lawmakers continue to struggle to reach a deal to raise the debt ceiling and reduce the deficit, and concerns over the possible weakness of the USD led investors to target crude oil, which pushed it higher.Traders will be focused on the latest developments in the United States regarding the debt ceiling deal, since if lawmakers agree a deal, the dollar should rebound to the upside, and that will put crude oil prices under pressure to decline .

Monday July 18:

The United States, the week will start at 13:00 GMT with the TIC Flows for May. The Net long-term TIC flows in April recorded $30.6 billion and the Total Net TIC Flows were at $68.2 billion.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis for July 18, 2011

As we mentioned Thursday, the natural gas markets were primed to rise in value. On Friday, they did just that – gaining 16 cents! The obvious support area finally paid off for investors, and one has to fancy the idea of the market returning to its highs fairly soon. We like buying pullbacks as we think we will see $4.80 again fairly soon.

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis for July 18, 2011

Natural gas pricesrose on Friday on expectations of warm weather conditions since it will increase speculations of rising demand for power-plant fuel to meet rising cooling demand.Warmer weather conditions should provide natural gas prices with momentum to rise on outlook of rising demand for natural gas.

Gold Technical Analysis for July 18, 2011

The gold markets fell on Friday , retested the recent breakout, and then rose – just what a bull would like to see. This makes sense as the world is starting to lose faith in a lot of paper currency, and starts buying gold and other hard assets. The measured move from the rectangle we were in sets our next target at $1,625. We don’t sell gold. Ever.

Gold Fundamental Analysis for July 18, 2011

Gold was the super star last week and ended with strong gains after reaching new historic records on the back of the pessimism and jitters which intensified risk aversion.

The dollar also weakened to the end of the weak on the pressure from rating agencies for the government to take a decision on the debt-limit. The debt crisis from Europe and now the debt threat from the United States were upside support to the metal that is rising on high uncertainty and jitters and continues to be favoured for more gains.

Monday is expected to me very volatile with one eye on the stress tests and the other on the decision from Congress as president Obama asked congressional leaders for a response within two days and that will clear if the debt-limit will be raised or not and accordingly will be reflected on the metal.

Eased woes from both sides will help the metal ease the rally and downbeat news will send the metal higher to new records and overall the bullishness remains favoured for gold on the prevailing uncertainty over the outlook.

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