Oil Technical Analysis for July 13, 2011
Light Sweet Crude
The CL contract exploded to the upside once the Americans came on board on Tuesday, as traders put the risk-on trade back into vogue. The $95 looked supportive in yesterday’s video, and as such – we suggested this could happen. A move towards $100 seems to be what the market wants at this point. We still like buying on dips.
The Tuesday candle shows for the second day in a row that the $117.50 area is looking very supportive and that the buyers are willing to step into the market every time there is a dip – and we think that the smart money is doing the same thing. The two hammers in a row is screaming that there is a lot of buying pressure waiting to be unleashed.
Oil Fundamental Analysis for July 13, 2011
Crude oil prices fluctuated around the opening level on Tuesday after dropping earlier in the day, where concerns over the outlook of the European debt crisis earlier on Tuesday pressured crude oil prices to drop, as investors fear the debt crisis will spread to other nations including Italy and Spain. Nonetheless, the U.S. dollar fell after the worse than expected trade balance figures and amid speculations the ECB is stepping up its efforts to ease the European debt crisis through purchasing Italian and Spanish paper boosted confidence again.
If pessimism continues to dominate financial markets, we should expect crude oil prices to remain under pressure, noting that the EIA report for crude oil inventories is due on Wednesday, while the Fed’s Chairman Bernanke will give his semi-annual testimony before the Congress and markets will be eyeing what Bernanke has to say over the outlook for monetary policy.
Wednesday July 13:
The U.S. will release the minor impact Import Price index for June at 12:30 GMT and expected with 0.6% drop following 0.2% rise in May and with 13.2% rise on the year following 12.5%.
At 14:00 GMT, Bernanke will give his semi-annual testimony before the House of Representatives on the monetary policy outlook, and markets will be eager to hear what the Fed’s Chairman has to offer.
At 14:30 GMT, the EIA report for crude oil inventories will be released for the week ending July 8, where last week crude oil inventories decreased by 0.9 million barrels, and Wednesday’s report ios expected to show crude oil inventories decreased by 1.5 million barrels.
Also at 18:00 GMT the Budget Statement for June is due and the deficit is expected to have narrowed to $45.4 billion from $57.6 billion.
Natural Gas Technical Analysis for July 13, 2011
The natural gas markets rose again on Tuesday, as the markets are currently confirming the bottom of the range we have outlined in this market. The $4 to $5 mark seems to be the boundaries of the market, and the $4.20 area is the start of that support. The $4.40 mark seems to be the first target, and then onto to higher levels.
Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis for July 13, 2011
Natural gas prices extended their gains on Tuesday, as weather forecasts suggest that temperatures will be higher than their average for this time of the year in Midwest and East of the United States, which pushed natural gas prices higher.
Expectations of warm weather conditions could push natural gas prices further to the upside, since it will increase speculations of rising demand for power-plant fuel to meet rising cooling demand.
Gold Technical Analysis for July 13, 2011
The gold markets rose again on Tuesday breaking $1,550 area, and are currently testing the all-time highs at the time of this writing. The market looks very bullish, and is a certain buy on the dips situation. Until we break $1,475 or so – there is no selling gold at all. That level is far below us…
Gold Fundamental Analysis for July 13, 2011
Gold fluctuated on Tuesday and was under some downside pressure despite the prevailing upside support for the metal to rise on haven demand with the worsening debt crisis and uncertain outlook for the global recovery.
We saw the metal pressured by the wide market selloff which we expect pressured the metal on some liquidations with heavy losses seen especially in the European session. The debt crisis remains the main pressure especially after the short statement from the euro area finance ministers was not at all adequate to what investors expected as they only promised to ease the cost and extend maturities of loans to Greece and also expand the scope of the EFSF with the promise to add new measures “shortly”.
The jitters slightly eased after Italy and Greece successfully sold bills and rumours circled the market that the ECB is back again buying papers to ease the pressure in the market.
Focus remains on Europe for now and that will continue on Wednesday as investors come to see if the EU 27 finance chiefs in Brussels ended the meeting on a better note. More volatility will be seen from the Chinese GDP data that might keep the fears over the slowing pace of the recovery.
In other news, other major focus that will affect the market and gold will be Bernanke’s semi-annual testimony on Monetary Policy at 14:00 GMT as investors search for hints on QE3 as the signs of slowing recovery broaden which will affect the pair strongly.
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