Through nine weeks (and one Tuesday night game) there are still ten undefeated teams in college football FBS. Even with upcoming head-to-head matchups, it is still possible there will be as many five undefeated teams fighting for spots in the College Football Playoff.
Using ESPN’s Football Power Index, a model that measures each team’s performance so far and projects the remaining games 10,000 times, we get a good sense of which teams have the best chances to run the table. Clemson, who is No. 1 in the first College Football Playoff ranking, has the best shot to win out, with a 43.1% chance to be undefeated going into the ACC Championship game.
After that, things get murky. Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma State all still have games against each other, meaning at least two of those teams are guaranteed a loss. Houston and Memphis face off in Week 11 and Ohio State and Michigan State will face each other in Week 12, knocking off two more undefeateds. Finally, the winner of OSU-Michigan State would likely face Iowa in the Big Ten Championship game, guaranteeing, at most, one undefeated team from the Big Ten.
In other words, it is still possible for there to be five undefeated teams after the conference championship games with only four spots available in the playoff.
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