The College Football Playoff committee will release its first ranking on Tuesday, but while that will give an early peak at who has the inside track to make college football’s final four, we already know there are 13 teams that still have a shot at making the playoff.
At FiveThirtyEight.com, Nate Silver’s model has simulated the rest of the season thousands of times and there are 20 schools that make the playoff at least 1% of the time. However, only 13 of those teams have fewer than two losses through the first nine weeks of the season. While there is no rule against a 2-loss team making the playoff, it has not happened yet and would seem to require a special set of circumstances that are unlikely. None of the 2-loss teams have better than a 5% chance of making the playoff.
Of the 13 teams with fewer than two losses and at least an 8% chance of making the playoff, Alabama, Ohio State, and Georgia are all heavy favourites, with each being given a greater than 50-50 shot to be in the playoff. Clemson, the defending champions, is fourth, at 38%.
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