College Football Playoff: Michigan State and Oklahoma are surging while Notre Dame slips again

The latest College Football Playoff ranking is out and Oklahoma and Iowa have surged into the top four, at No. 3 and No. 4, respectively, with Clemson and Alabama still holding on to the top spots. Notre Dame fell to No. 6 after an ugly win against Boston College and Ohio State is now No. 8 after their loss to Michigan State.

Over at FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver’s model has simulated the rest of the season thousands of times and Oklahoma now has a 64% chance (up from 45% a week ago) to take one of the four playoff spots, tied with Alabama, and trailing only Clemson (71%). Meanwhile, despite being fifth in the ranking, Silver actually gives Michigan State a 47% chance (up from 12% a week ago) to make the playoff and Iowa is at just 30%. The two teams will likely face each other in the Big Ten Championship game.

Notre Dame’s chances of making the playoff fell for the second straight week, down from 26% last week to 21% this week. Ohio State, Florida, and Oklahoma State all had big drops this week, however, the Buckeyes still have a 25% chance to be in the playoff.

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