The latest College Football Playoff ranking is out and Oklahoma and Iowa have surged into the top four, at No. 3 and No. 4, respectively, with Clemson and Alabama still holding on to the top spots. Notre Dame fell to No. 6 after an ugly win against Boston College and Ohio State is now No. 8 after their loss to Michigan State.
Over at FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver’s model has simulated the rest of the season thousands of times and Oklahoma now has a 64% chance (up from 45% a week ago) to take one of the four playoff spots, tied with Alabama, and trailing only Clemson (71%). Meanwhile, despite being fifth in the ranking, Silver actually gives Michigan State a 47% chance (up from 12% a week ago) to make the playoff and Iowa is at just 30%. The two teams will likely face each other in the Big Ten Championship game.
Notre Dame’s chances of making the playoff fell for the second straight week, down from 26% last week to 21% this week. Ohio State, Florida, and Oklahoma State all had big drops this week, however, the Buckeyes still have a 25% chance to be in the playoff.
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