Our daily series on college basketball betting continues, check yesterday’s introduction post here.Wanna see something amazing? Check out the spreads on tonight’s lopsided basketball games and see how they match up with the KenPom.com predictions.
(KenPom.com is a must-use resource for advanced college basketball statistics. This is not a paid endorsement, just a known resource, as baseball-reference.com is for MLB stats, and so forth… rather than explain that every time we right a college basketball betting post, we’re going to devote an entire post tomorrow on how to use it. Be sure to check back.)
Astonishingly, they’re identical. USC is favoured by 11.5 over Oregon St., KenPom foresees a 12-point win. Butler is favoured by 9 over Wright St., and KenPom predicts a 9-point win. Washington is favoured by 13.5 points over Cal, and KenPom has Washington winning 85-71.
Either bookies have caught on to the genius of Ken Pomeroy, or they use nearly identical formulas.
So how do I intend to take advantage of this? Easy. A college basketball rule is that home teams always have an advantage. They have the benefit of a gym they’re accustomed to, a student section on their side that can affect momentum, and occasionally, referees’ calls, and the players don’t have to travel.
Granted, Pomeroy and bookies factor that into their lines, but in situations where the home team is a heavy underdog, they often perform quite well against the spread. Of yesterday’s 18 road favourites, 11 underperfromed. The day before three of four underperformed. On Monday, road favourites didn’t live up to expectations in seven of 12 cases.
That means tonight we’re taking Santa Clara as 6-point home ‘dogs against St. Mary’s; Loyola Marymount as 8.5-point home dogs hosting Gonzaga; and Pepperdine as 4-point home dogs versus Portland.
We’ll review this system tomorrow, and talk more about KenPom.com tomorrow.
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