STOCKS SURGE AHEAD OF THE US ELECTION: Here's what you need to know

Stocks surged early on Monday following the FBI’s announcement it had concluded its probe into new emails found as part of its investigation of Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server while she was secretary of state.

After nine straight days of declines, S&P 500 was trading up by about 2% around noon ET. Meanwhile, the Dow was up by about 1.9% and the Nasdaq was up by 2.4%.

All major indices finished up for the day — right on the edge of the 2016 US presidential election.

First up, the scoreboard:

  1. The Mexican peso also surged by about 2.0% against the dollar after the FBI announcement. Given that Republican candidate Donald Trump’s protectionist platform could have negative repercussions for the Mexican economy, the currency has become something of a gauge of his prospects over the past couple of months of the campaign.
  2. Overall, Wall Street is bracing for a wild Election Day. “What to do with a more uncertain race? Anchor to realpolitik but prepare for volatility,” wrote Michael Zezas, chief municipal strategist at Morgan Stanley. “We think this week will be a volatile one, but unlike a month ago, risk assets now reflect a meaningful ‘fear’ premium.”
  3. 2 out of the 3 most likely US election outcomes would lead to a stock market sell-off, according to Nomura analysts. Their base case is a Clinton win and a Republican House, which would be a slight upside. Meanwhile, a clean sweep for Democrats would be a slight negative, while a Trump win and clean sweep for Republicans would lead to a more substantial risk-off selling.
  4. Meanwhile, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee argues the election outcome that will make stocks plunge is not a Trump win. He said stocks will rally after Tuesday’s election regardless of whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump wins. But one scenario Lee thinks would tank stocks would be Trump losing and refusing to accept defeat, he said in a note on Monday. Lee said the S&P 500 could fall 5% by the end of the year if that were to happen.
  5. Some analysts argue that a Donald Trump victory followed by market volatility and risk-off posturing could decrease the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in December. “A Trump victory could derail a December hike scenario, as the Fed may wait for clarity about the impact on financial conditions (US curve, USD, global EMFX, risk asset valuation and volatility),” according to a Societe Generale team.
  6. In non-election news, Americans own too many vacation homes, and it’s making the “new housing crisis” worse. “One factor contributing to low inventory levels are the significant numbers of vacant homes which are not for sale or rent,” Matthew Pointon, a property economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note on Monday. “In particular, there are large numbers of properties vacant for reasons other than use as vacation homes or other occasional use.”


What to watch for on Election Day.

Here’s what Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump plan to do to grow the US economy.

Wall Street’s biggest bull outlines 8 reasons markets will rip higher if Trump wins.

Everyone’s watching the peso — but here’s the other big currency to watch as election results roll in.

There’s a huge concern for the stock market aside from the election.

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