Stocks fell on Wednesday as the post-election rally took a breather, while Treasuries gained for a second straight day.
First, the scoreboard:
- Dow: 18,874.61 -48.45 (-0.26%)
- S&P 500: 2,176.41, -3.98, (-0.18%)
- Nasdaq: 5,291.67, +16.05, (0.30%)
- 10-year Treasury yield: 2.224%, -0.014
- Markets are almost certain the Federal Reserve is hiking interest rates in December. Bloomberg’s World Interest Rate Probability (WIRP) function, a market-based tracker of the likelihood of different interest rate corridors, now shows investors are pricing in a 96% chance the Fed raises its key interest rate 25 basis points to a range of 0.50% to 0.75% at its December 13-14 meeting. The probability jumped as bond-market yields rose after the election.
- Janus Fund Manager Bill Gross said Donald Trump’s election was a misguided attempt by American workers to fix their problems, and it would only make their plight worse. Comparing Trump to a fox let into the hen house, Gross said in an investor letter the proposals so far from the transition team had shown nothing to benefit the working-class Americans who helped propel Trump to his unexpected victory.
- The US Geological Survey said Tuesday that it found what could be the largest deposit of untapped oil ever discovered in America. An estimated average of 20 billion barrels of oil and 1.6 billion barrels of natural gas liquids are available for the taking in the Wolfcamp shale, which is in the Midland Basin portion of Texas’ Permian Basin. Based on a West Texas Intermediate crude oil price of $45 per barrel, those deposits are worth about $900 billion.
- The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) said Tuesday that its members’ confidence in the housing market held steady in November. Its monthly housing market index was unchanged from October at 63, as members awaited results of the US presidential election, according to NAHB chairman Ed Brady.
- Producer prices were unchanged in October, according to the Department of Labour. Economists had forecast that the producer price index (PPI) for final demand — sold to consumers — rose 0.3% from September. A 5.7% plunge in the costs of securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services was a major factor that dragged down the services prices.
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