If the election were held today, Hillary Clinton would have a 95% chance of winning the presidency by a margin of 108 electoral votes, according to the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project.
The project uses a combination of factors, like weekly online surveys of as many as 16,000 Americans’ voter preferences and hypothetical turnout rates for different demographics, to gauge which candidate is most likely to win the presidency.
According to the project’s latest estimates, Clinton beats Trump by 6 percentage points in the popular vote and easily wins traditionally blue states like California and New York. She would also win the crucial swing states of Ohio, Virginia and Florida by as many as 6 to 8 percentage points.
Her electoral college total would be at least 268 votes, or just two fewer than the 270 votes a candidate needs to win the election. Trump would follow with at least 179 electoral votes, winning 21 states, many of which lie in the deep South, and some of which have smaller populations, like Mississippi, Louisiana, and Alabama.
In this scenario, Reuters/Ipsos estimates a 60% overall turnout rate, with minorities turning out at 43%, African-American women turning out at 59% and white men turning out at 69%.
The poll also estimates that if millennials, considered a critical voting bloc in this election, turned out at a lower rate than expected, Clinton would still enjoy a comfortable victory by a margin of 90 electoral votes.
In order for Trump to win the election, he would need to win the 21 states cited in the project, as well as racking up additional victories in all of the eight states that are currently too close to call, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, among others.
The project comes on the heels of a renewed attempt by the Republican nominee to soften his tone and improve outreach to minorities and women, two demographics that could be key to his winning the presidency.
After replacing his campaign management team for the second time, Trump has made a concerted effort to increase his support among African-American and Hispanic communities.
He took a step back from his stance on immigration on Wednesday — a key tenet of his campaign platform — when he said he would no longer seek to deport 11 million illegal immigrants from the nation during a town hall with Fox News’s Sean Hannity.
He has also begun to reach out directly to the African-American community, asking them to support him in November.
Hillary Clinton has had issues of her own on the campaign trail, as the FBI continues to investigate fallout from when she set up a private email server when she was at the State Department.
More recently, she has come under fire from Donald Trump and other critics, who have pointed to the Clinton Foundation as being a symbol of corruption and lack of transparency, because of an alleged “pay-to-play” scheme that critics think existed between influential Clinton Foundation donors and the former Secretary of State.
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