This map shows the likelihood that temperatures will be hotter than usual in various parts of Australia between November and January. Deep red indicates there’s an 80 per cent chance it’ll be warmer than usual. The signal is as clear as you can get: it’s going to be a hot one.
After a winter in which brutal drought conditions afflicted much of the nation’s farming regions, particularly in the east, it’s now looking like it will be a warm summer across, well, the whole country.
The map reflects the likelihood that median temperatures over November to January will exceed the median temperature in the period between 1990 and 2012.
And it’s not the median temperature on any given day: it’s the median temperature across the whole period. Sustained warmth, in other words.
Rainfall predictions also show November is expected to be drier than average, leading into peak bushfire season.
A Bureau of Meteorology spokesperson told Business Insider that two major climate drivers are combining to set Australia up for a hot, dry summer.
“This outlook from our dynamical (physics based) climate model run on the BoM supercomputer is consistent with the patterns we might expect from the two current drivers of our climate – the developing El Nino situation in the Pacific Ocean, and its equivalent in the Indian Ocean; the positive Indian Ocean Dipole,” the spokesman said.
“Typically when these combine an El Nino and positive IOD you get a warmer and drier end to the year, with increased risk of heatwaves in the south and bushfires in the east.”
Prime Minister Scott Morrison is today announcing a $5 billion preparedness fund to develop more resilience in farming communities to protect against the impact of drought.
There’s more detailed information and more forecast maps at the November to January climate outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology.
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