Citi's 'Panic-Euphoria Model' Predicts A 96% Chance Stocks Are Higher In 12 Months


Photo: Bloomberg TV

Citigroup’s proprietary Panic-Euphoria model is closely watched, especially after it successfully predicted a 98 per cent chance of a double-digit return in stocks last October.Tobias Levkovich, Citi’s top U.S. equity strategist was on Bloomberg TV saying the hard-selling is almost over. He also said the model went into panic last Friday, and is still in panic which is a positive sign for markets:

“We think it is a correction. We’re not convinced that we’re done with the correction, but we think most of the hard selling is over.

Last Friday our panic-euphoria model, one of our proprietary sentiment models went into panic, that gives us a very high probability, almost 90 per cent probability that markets are up in 6 months, and 96 per cent probability that they’re are up in 12 months.

We’re still in panic today and as a result it would indicate that yes, if you have a six to 12 month time horizon buy the market. If you’re looking at the next six to 12 days, that’s not a great indicator, look at other catalysts for change for that.”

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