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In an interview with King World News, top Citibank technical analyst Tom Fitzpatrick said that his group expects the stock markets to fall again thanks to the turn in consumer confidence.”Contrary to what most people think, is that the consumer sentiment drives the equity markets rather than vice versa,” he says.
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We saw that in 2000, 2007, and again in 2011, that when consumer confidence peaked and turned, it’s often an early warning sign that markets are headed lower. Within a couple of months you started to see equity markets come under pressure.
It’s been no different this year, with the consumer confidence turning in February. Then we saw the S&P turn in April, and the Dow top out on the first trading day of May. Looking at the chart, we’re convinced it’s a very strong double-top formation, very similar to what we saw back in 1980.
The suggestion to us is that we are headed all the way back down again, possibly even to the lows that we saw in 2011, when we got down to about 41 on the index. This is likely to weigh on equities.
Photo: King World News
Fitzpatrick thinks European government bonds are also signaling a downturn in stocks. “We expect to see a reemergence of the stresses, as well as the equity markets beginning to fall again. Our feeling is we will see that once again after we get through this weekend.”
Read more at KingWorldNews.com.