Citi’s latest sentiment reading, via their commercially-named Panic/Euphoria model, shows that sentiment has snapped back, dipping slightly into the “Panic” zone.
Obviously this is just a model, and a somewhat opaque one at that. Yet it can still be used as a gauge against its own history. Clearly the sentiment metrics involved are still well below where they were in both 2007 and 2008. By Citi’s model, we’re at about late-2006 levels of sentiment.
Also, we’ve seen net outflows from US equities in recent weeks. This shows that, whatever the future may hold, most of the money which fled the market in 2008 has yet to return.
(Charts via Citi, The PULSE Monitor, 25 September 2009)
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