One of the more counterintuitive phenomena in the stock markets lately has been the monster rally amid deteriorating earnings growth expectations.
However, this trend may be turning.
According to Citi’s Robert Buckland, analysts worldwide–on a net basis–have raised their earnings estimates for the first time in 10 months. From Buckland’s note to clients:
Positive Global EPS Revisions — Weekly global net analyst EPS revisions finally turned positive after 41 weeks of consecutive downgrades. If this trend is sustained, it will help support stock markets, in our view.
Major regions — Japan has been the strongest region WoW (+34%) followed by Continental Europe (+10%) and the UK (+3%). The US has been the weakest region last week (-13%) after being one of the strongest during the previous week. EM EPS revisions have improved, yet remain negative (-1% vs. -5% previous week).
The “Problem Child” — Earnings revisions for the companies at the epicentre of the current concerns, European Periphery and Continental European Financials, have stabilised. The European Periphery has seen positive revisions over the week (+10%) while ERI for Continental European Financials was at -14%.
If you look very carefully to the very far right, you’ll see a tiny bar pointing north of zero.
Photo: Citi Investment Research & Analysis