We’ve been talking about and looking at the Citi Economic Surprise Index a lot lately, since it’s on the verge of going negative, just as the market looks toppy.
Remember, the Citi Economic Surprise Index is an index that tries to measure the economic data vs. consensus expectations.
Over the last few years the index has moved roughly in line with the market, but as we pointed out recently, if you go back over the last 10 years, the relationship is far less clear.
But anyway, just how close is the index tracking with the market these days?
The relationship looks remarkably tight going back a few years… and it also looks like the market is due for a tumble.