Gold’s setting up for a big drop

Gold was on a roll in the first quarter amid volatility in stocks.

But that surge might not last for long, according to Citi analysts.

“We are increasingly of the view that the recent rally on Gold is both owned and unsustainable,” writes a Citi analyst team led by Tom Fitzpatrick.

“As risk calms down, equity markets perform well and long end yields in the US and Germany …. rise, that is not a recipe that favours gold,” they explained.

Gold is the traditional “end of the world” trade, and is often bought up aggressively by investors in times of financial stress.

And so, during the extremely volatile first quarter, gold was on a roll.

Citi’s analysts also shared the gold chart below in their note, warning there’s a “clear danger that a head and shoulders top is forming.” They suggest the yellow metal could fall to its 200-day moving average at $1141.

Screen Shot 2016 04 15 at 9.59.12 AM

For what it’s worth, HSBC’s technical analysts expressed opposite sentiments, writing that they’re pretty bullish on gold on Tuesday.

“The US dollar price of Gold is in an uptrend with a bullish Elliott Wave structure,” said Murray Gunn, HSBC’s head of technical analysis.

“With momentum turning up we open a long position at a spot reference of $1,260. A stop-loss is set at $1,200 with an initial target of $1,500.”

Gold is trading higher by 0.3% at $1,230.90 as of 10:01 a.m. EST. It’s up over 12.1% since the start of the year.

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