Oscar Choi at Citi makes a sharp point — by temporarily banning the sale of land and declaring that 70% of new land supply be allocated to welfare housing, China has actually restricted the supply of property in the higher end property market. Guess what can easily happen to prices when supply shrinks and demand stays the same. Oops.
Oscar Choi at Citi:
Less new land allocated to private housing market, especially the high/luxury housing segment. According to the MRL, around 70% of new land supply should be allocated to social welfare housing and low- to-middle end housing construction. It means there will be a sharp decline of new land released for high/luxury end housing segment. In this situation, it is hard to imagine a drop in land prices. This also explains why developers have been so aggressive in recent land acquisitions. Given the insufficient land supply in key cities, land prices should remain at high levels in the coming 2-3 years.
He’s being hedged… There’s now an even higher risk that luxury Chinese property prices could go through the roof, since supply was just crushed with a regulatory sledgehammer.
(Via Citi, Land Storm Is Coming, Oscar Choi, 25 March 2010)
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