Citi Asks The Trillion-Dollar Question: CAN EUROPE RUIN THE WORLD?

Good note out from Citi’s Steven Englander, who asks: Can Europe Ruin The World?

Fortunately, he doesn’t offer a definitive answer, but he makes one point, which is that even a fairly hard landing growth-wise probably wouldn’t cream major trading partners.

US exports to Europe are pretty tiny as a percentage of GDP:

chart

For China it would be a bit more problematic.

chart

Ultimately, we’ll say this: If Europe does ruin the world, it won’t be through the trade channel. It will be through the financial channel, and the knock-on effects of exposed US institutions.

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