ECONOMIST: A US rate hike in December is a done deal

The October jobs report for the US was a blowout.

The US economy added 271,000 jobs while the unemployment rate fell to 5% and average hourly earnings — long a laggard over the last year or so — finally ticked up, rising 2.4% in October.

And so following this report, economist Chris Rupkey at MUFG Union Bank thinks the Federal Reserve is definitely raising interest rates in December.

Writing in an email following the report, Rupkey said, “The reasons for Fed caution and delay are falling to the wayside as this economic expansion is the real deal. Liftoff is coming in December. Bet on it. Savers, your long national nightmare is over. Rates on money in the bank are going up.”

Rupkey added, “This report today shows the economy’s course is steady and true. There are no China risks here. The labour market is tight as a drum.”

And this chart, which comes to us via Bloomberg economist Michael McDonough, shows that the market agrees with Rupkey, as the chances of a rate hike in December are now at 70%.

Following the report, stocks were falling while bond yields were rising, a more significant sign that markets are preparing for a world of higher interest rates.

The yield on 2-year Treasury notes, which has been closely watched over the last several months, rose as high as 0.91%, the highest since at least 2011, following the report.

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