Photo: AP Images
The world’s most populous nation is in the middle of a massive demographic change.Its one-child policy, aimed at controlling population growth, has sparked a whole set of problems.
First, it has a rapidly ageing population which is causing its labour-pool to shrink. The U.N. projects that the share of people over 60 will rise from 12.3% in 2010, to 17.4% in 2030.
Second, the one-child policy has also exacerbated the preference for a male child, skewing the sex ratio in favour of males.
These demographic problems could eventually become a drain on resources and the country’s health and pension systems, ultimately impacting GDP growth. The skewed sex ratio could spark an array of social tensions. We drew on a Nomura report and data from the U.N. to look at the ongoing change in China’s population.
Population in 2010: 1.34 billion
Population in 2015: 1.37 billion
Population in 2030: 1.39 billion
Median age 2010: 34.5 years
Median age 2015: 36.2 years
Median age 2030: 42.5 years
Working age population in 2010: 971 million
Working age population in 2015: 996 million
Working age population in 2030: 960 million
Youth population as per cent of total in 2010: 16.8%
Youth population as per cent of total in 2015: 14.6%
Youth population as per cent of total in 2030: 11.4%
And its elderly population (65+) as a per cent of the total will increase from 10.2% in 2000 to 24.4% in 2030
Elderly population as per cent of total in 2010: 12.3%
Elderly population as per cent of total in 2015: 15.1%
Elderly population as per cent of total in 2030: 24.4%
Old age dependency ratio 2010: 11.3%
Old age dependency ratio 2015: 13.0%
Old age dependency ratio 2030: 23.9%
Note: The ratio of the number of people over the age of 65, and those in the labour force (i.e. aged 15 years - 64 years) expressed as a per cent.
Meanwhile the ratio of children dependent of the working population will fall from 37.7% in 2000 to 21.2% in 2030
Child dependency ratio 2010: 26.9%
Child dependency ratio 2015: 24.5%
Child dependency ratio 2030: 21.2%
Note: The ratio of the number of children between the ages of 0 - 14 years, to those in the labour force (i.e. aged 15 years - 64 years) expressed as a per cent.
After falling to 37.5% in 2015, from 48.1% in 2000, total dependency ratio will climb back up to 45.1%
Total dependency ratio 2010: 38.2%
Total dependency ratio 2015: 37.5%
Total dependency ratio 2030: 45.1%
Note: The ratio of the number of children between the ages of 0 - 14 years and the number of people over the age of 65, to those in the labour force (i.e. aged 15 years - 64 years) expressed as a per cent.
Fertility rate 2010: 1.64
Fertility rate 2015: 1.56
Fertility rate 2030: 1.58
Note: This measures child births per woman
The number of daughters per woman will tick up slightly to 0.72 per woman but below 2000 levels of 0.78
Net reproduction rate 2010: 0.71
Net reproduction rate 2015: 0.69
Net reproduction rate 2030: 0.72
Note: This measures the number of daughters per woman
Population sex ratio 2010: 108.0
Population sex ratio 2015: 108.0
Population sex ratio 2030: 107.1
Note: This measures the number of males per 100 females
Sex ratio at birth 2010: 1.20
Sex ratio at birth 2015: 1.18
Sex ratio at birth 2030: 1.14
Note: This measures the number of male births per one female
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