All the caveats about Chinese statistics aside, Q3 was a monster, with GDP growing 8.9%.
For some context, do check out this FT op-ed from Qin Xiao, warning of global imbalances, asset bubbles in China, and clueless central bankers without any ideas for how to pull back the stimulus.
Here’s the full GDP announcement from China’s Bureau of Statistics.
In the first three quarters of 2009, the various localities and departments have conscientiously implemented the arrays of plans by the central government and the State Council on dealing with the international financial crisis and maintaining stable and fast development of the economy. We have attained obvious achievements, and further strengthened the steady upturn trend of the economy. The overall situation of national economy was good.
According to preliminary estimation, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China in the first three quarters of this year was 21,781.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7 per cent, which was 0.6 percentage points higher than that in the first half of this year. In terms of growth by quarters, it was up 6.1 per cent for the first quarter, 7.9 per cent for the second, and 8.9 per cent for the third quarter. In terms of growth by sectors, the value added of the primary industry was 2,250.0 billion yuan, up by 4.0 per cent; that of the secondary industry was 10,647.7 billion yuan, up by 7.5 per cent; and that of the tertiary industry was 8,884.0 billion yuan, up by 8.8 per cent.
1. The situation of agricultural production was steady with expected bumper harvest of grain. Given the increase of summer grain for six consecutive years, the total output of early rice reached 33.27 million tons, an increase of 1.67 million tons over that in the same period of last year, up 5.3 per cent. A bumper harvest of the grain for the whole year is to be achieved. The output of meat maintains steady growth, with 52.80 million tons of port, beef and mutton output in the first three quarters, up by 5.6 per cent. Of this total, the output of pork was 34.95 million tons, up by 6.3 per cent; the total stock of pigs was 468 million, up 2.2 per cent, while the number of slaughtered pigs was 463 million, up by 6.4 per cent.
2. The growth rate of industrial production increased on a quarterly basis and the decrease rate of profits made by industrial enterprises slowed down. In the first three quarters of this year, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size was up 8.7 per cent year-on-year, or 6.5 percentage points lower than that in the same period of last year. Of this total, the growth in the first quarter was 5.1 per cent, the second quarter 9.1 per cent, and that in the third quarter was 12.4 per cent. Analysis on different types of enterprises showed that the value added growth of the state-owned and state holding enterprises went up by 4.1 per cent; collective enterprises, 7.9 per cent; share-holding enterprises, 11.0 per cent; and 3.4 per cent growth for enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan province. The year-on-year growth of heavy industry was 8.7 per cent, and 8.7 per cent for the light industry. Among the 39 industrial divisions, all were increased over the same period of last years. In terms of different areas, the growth in eastern, central and western regions went up by 7.5 per cent, 8.7 per cent and 13.8 per cent respectively. The production and market of industrial products went on well. In the first three quarters of this year, the sales ratio of industrial products was 97.43 per cent.
In the first eight months of this year, the profits made by industrial enterprises above designated size stood at 1,674.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.6 per cent, narrowed down by 12.2 percentage points as compared with that from January to May. Among the 39 industrial divisions, 36 divisions registered narrowed year-on-year growth or decrease with profits.
3. Investment in fixed assets enjoyed fast growth with acceleration of growth in investment in real estate. In the first three quarters of this year, the investment in fixed assets of the country was 15,505.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 33.4 per cent, or a rise of 6.4 percentage points as compared with the growth in the same period last year. The investment in urban areas reached 13,317.7 billion yuan, up by 33.3 per cent, or 5.7 percentage points higher while that in rural areas was 2,188.0 billion yuan, up by 33.6 per cent, or a rise of 10.3 percentage points. The investment in the primary industry, secondary industry and the tertiary industry in urban areas went up by 54.8 per cent, 26.9 per cent and 38.1 per cent respectively. In terms of the areas, the investment in eastern, central and western regions grew by 28.1 per cent, 38.3 per cent and 38.9 per cent respectively. The investment in infrastructures was increased by a large margin. In the first three quarters, the investment in infrastructure (excluding electricity) went up by 52.6 per cent, of which, that in the railway transportation, up by 87.5 per cent, that in road transportation, up by 50.7 per cent, and that in health, social security and social welfare up by 72.9 per cent. In the first three quarters, the investment in real estate development was 2,505.0 billion yuan, up by 17.7 per cent year on year, or a 7.8 percentage point higher than that in first half of this year.
4. Sales on domestic markets continued to steadily accelerate with higher growth rate at or below county level than that in cities. In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 8,967.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year rise of 15.1 per cent; the real growth was 17.0 per cent after deducting the price factors, which was 2.8 percentage points higher than that in the same period last year. The retail sales in cities reached 6,101.3 billion yuan, up by 14.8 per cent, and the retail sales at and below county level stood at 2,866.3 billion yuan, up by 16.0 per cent. Grouped by different sectors, the sale by wholesale and retail businesses was up by 15.0 per cent and that by lodging and catering industry was up by 17.4 per cent. Among the sales by wholesale and retail businesses above designated size, apart from the telecommunication devices, the sales of all the other 20 categories of commodities realised positive growth. Of these, the sale of furniture increased by 32.3 per cent, and that of the automobile up by 24.5 per cent.
5. The month-on-month changes of consumer price and producers’ price reversed from decreasing to increasing while the year-on-year decrease narrowed. In the first three quarters of this year, the consumer price index went down by 1.1 per cent. Of which it dropped by 1.3 per cent in cities and 0.7 per cent in rural areas. Grouped by commodity categories, three out of eight went up while the rest five dropped: prices for tobacco, liquor and articles rose by 1.6 per cent, price for household facilities, articles and maintenance services up by 0.6 per cent, health care and personal articles up by 1.0 per cent; prices for food down by 0.1 per cent, clothing down by 2.3 per cent, transportation and communication down by 2.6 per cent, recreation, education, culture articles and services down by 0.7 per cent, and housing down 4.4 per cent. The month-on-month change of consumer price in July reversed from decreasing to maintaining the same level, the month-on-month change in August and September was up 0.5 per cent and 0.4 per cent respectively. In the first three quarters, the retail prices of commodities dropped by 1.6 per cent year-on-year. The producers’ prices for manufactured goods went down by 6.5 per cent year on year, by the end of September the month-on-month changes enjoyed growth for six consecutive years, it was up 0.6 per cent in September. In the first three quarters of this year, the purchaser’s prices for raw material, fuel and power decreased by 9.5 per cent year-on-year. The year-on-year growth of the prices for housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities went up by 0.1 per cent.
6. The foreign trade continued to drop but the decrease rate obviously lowered. In the first three quarters of this year, the total value of imports and exports was US$ 1,557.8 billion, down 20.9 per cent year-on-year. Of this total, the value of imports and exports in the first quarter down 24.9 per cent, second quarter down 22.1 per cent, and third quarter down by 16.5, with obviously narrowed declining rate. In the first three quarters of this year, the value of exports was US$ 846.6 billion, down by 21.3 per cent; the value of imports was US$ 711.2 billion, down by 20.4 per cent. The trade surplus was US$135.5 billion, down by US$ 45.5 billion year-on-year.
7. The income of urban and rural residents continued to grow with rapid increase in transfer income. In the first three quarters of this year, the per capita income of urban households was 14,213 yuan. Of this total, the per capita disposable income of urban population was 12,973 yuan, a year-on-year growth of 9.3 per cent, or a real growth of 10.5 per cent after deducting price factors. Of the total per capita income of urban households, the income from wages and salaries was up 10.2 per cent year-on-year; transfer income was up 15.7 per cent; net operating income up 5.0 per cent; the property income up 12.3 per cent. The per capita cash income of rural population was 4,307 Yuan, up by 8.5 per cent year-on-year, or a real growth 9.2 per cent after deducting price factors. Of this total, the income from wages and salaries was up 9.9 per cent; income from the sale of agricultural products up by 4.0 per cent; income from production operation in secondary and tertiary industry up by 10.5 per cent; property income up by 11.7 per cent; transfer income up 26.4 per cent.
8. The money supply grew rapidly with continued increase in loans of financial institutions. By the end of September, the supply of broad money (M2) was 58.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 29.3 per cent, which was 11.5 percentage points higher than that at the end of last year; that of the narrow money (M1) was 20.2 trillion yuan, a rise of 29.5 per cent, or 20.5 percentage points higher; the cash in circulation (M0) was 3,678.8 billion yuan, up by 16.0 per cent, or 3.3 percentage points higher. The amount of outstanding loans of all financial institutions was 39.0 trillion yuan, increased by 8.7 trillion yuan over that at the beginning of this year, or an increase of 5.2 trillion yuan as compared with the same period last year. The amount of outstanding deposits of all financial institutions was 58.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.7 trillion yuan over the beginning of the year, or 5.2 trillion yuan more than the same period last year.
At present, it’s the crucial stage for the national economy to realise a stable growth, yet the basis of the economic recovery still needs to be consolidated, and the insufficient external demand is still severe, with the arduous task of expanding domestic demand and adjusting the structures. In the following period, we should continue the implementation of the scientific outlook on development, maintain the consistency and stability of the macro-economic policies in accordance with the central government’s decisions and deployment of economic activities, insist on the proactive fiscal policies and moderately lenient monetary policies, fully implement, enrich and optimise the arrays of plans and policy measures to deal with the international financial crisis. At the same time, we should improve the relevance, flexibility, effectiveness and consistency of the macro-policies, and strive to realise stable and fast development of the national economy.