The Asian Development Bank (ADB) expects China’s exports to start growing again in the fourth quarter, after experiencing sharp declines during the global downturn.
Supportive Chinese government policy will help, yet global demand is improving as well.
ADB: This year’s government steps to assist exports—an increase in export tax rebates and expansion of export credit and insurance—will support the export effort in the second half of 2009. Exports will likely rise slightly year on year in the fourth quarter of 2009. For all this year, though, merchandise exports are expected to fall by 17.5%, before rebounding to grow by 8.0% in 2010 as global trade expands again.
Thus the dark blue line below will sharply turn upwards.
Full ADB report below.