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Stabilizing economic growth is China’s most pressing considering according to premiere Wen Jiabao.After weak economic data in April, and what can best be described as mixed data in May, hard and soft-landing watchers will have their eyes peeled for tonight’s data.
Here’s what to expect:
- Industrial production is expected to rise 9.8 per cent year-over-year (YoY) in June, after a 9.6 per cent YoY rise in May.
- Year-to-date (Ytd) industrial production in June is expected to rise 10.5 per cent YoY, down from 10.7 per cent in May.
- Real GDP is expected to show a 7.70 per cent YoY increase in the second quarter. This is after China posted 8.1 per cent YoY growth in the first quarter which itself had disappointed markets. GDP is expected to climbed 1.6 per cent quarter-over-quarter.
- Retail sales are expected to climb 13.4 per cent YoY, compared with 13.8 per cent in May.
- June year-to-date fixed asset investment (FAI) is expected to rise 20 per cent YoY, compared with 20.1 per cent May Ytd which was up 20.1 per cent. FAI is an indicator for government spending, and had been slowing for some time. Last month saw an uptick and the sub-indices of FAI data will show whether investment is improving in primary industry (farming, fishing and forestry etc) but has slowed in manufacturing, transportation infrastructures.
Back in March and May Citi’s economic surprise index saw major drops after retail sales, FAI, GDP and industrial production numbers came in weak.
Since the same data points are out today, Citi’s Steven Englander writes that in terms of the Forex market, commodity currencies like the Australian dollar, the Brazilian real, South African rand are most vulnerable to a disappointment in China.
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