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Much of the world’s recent increased agricultural production and fertiliser demand has come from China, which is now the world’s largest producer.But both may be hitting a wall, according to a report from Jefferies called “A Time To Plant, A Time To Reap.”
A few forces are driving the slowdown. First, China is nine years ahead of schedule on production of staples. Second, China is running out of arable land. Third, natural gas price reforms threaten gas-based fertilizers. Fourth, China has finished converting land to fertiliser-heavy crops like corn.
We’ve picked out some fascinating charts from the report by Jack Lu.