Last week, China announced that it would begin to
scale back its decade old one-child policy.
But a retraction of the one-child policy doesn’t just open the floodgates for Chinese babies.
Morgan Stanley analysts led by Angela Moh recently survey 1,453 Chinese consumers to gauge their willingness to have another child should the reform take hold.
Only 24% said they would be willing to have another child.
“In our base case scenario, we expect 8-11% incremental newborns per year in 2015-2020 from the policy relaxation allowing Chinese parents to have a second child if either of them is the only child,” wrote Moh. This translates to 1.3mn to 1.7mn additional newborns.
” Incremental population and wealth effect could boost overall consumption in the longer run.”