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Many continue to worry about China’s slowing economy as the country undergoes the most significant leadership transition in a decade.However, at least three different experts think China’s new generation of leaders will be its best ever.
Yesterday, Bloomberg’s Gan Yen Kuan and Rishaad Salamat reported BlackRock believes a strong turnaround will immediately follow the country’s power handover.
“Once we get through the leadership change, both in the U.S. and also in this part of the world, I think we’re going to see a much healthier base from which we can have growth within the expectations of China,” said Mark McCombe, BlackRock’s Asia-Pacific chairman, during Bloomberg Television’s Titans At The Table program which aired yesterday.
Bloomberg adds Citi analysts have echoed those sentiments, saying policies to boost China’s growth will crystallize after the leadership change.
Meanwhile, Kishore Mahbubani, Dean of National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, says that for the first time, China’s next ruling circle will be progressive and free of infighting.
Writing in the FT, Mahbubani says:
…it is quite conceivable that the new team of Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang could do better in the next 10 years. Some reports suggest that the close relationship between Xi Jinping, Li Yuanchao and Wang Qishan could lead to the emergence of a group of leaders as strong and visionary as Zhu Rongji.
In short, instead of a sputtering Chinese economy over the next decade, we might see a talented group of reformers injecting new drive and dynamism. This team would start with huge advantages: the world’s largest foreign reserves, the world’s largest industrial base, the world’s best new infrastructure, the world’s largest emerging middle class, the world’s largest output of science and technology graduates, to name just a few.
A reasonably competent set of leaders would do a lot with these accumulated advantages. A set of leaders who are more than competent could achieve a lot more: they could even set in train a further major growth spurt in China.
Perhaps, the new leaders will quell concerns of a hard economic landing once and for all.